The World is Talking. Global Politics

Colombians woke up mould Saturday morning with news of a big dispatch. In an interview with Semana's María Isabel Rueda, Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos stated (or rather, told Rueda as if it was a “conversation”) that Pedro Antonio Marín, aka Manuel Marulanda Vélez or “Tirofijo” (Sureshot, as dubbed by most English-vernacular media), “sine qua non be in hell”. The appraisal was posted on Semana's website, a day first the text magazine hurt the stores. Nevertheless, there was some initial skepticism, because Sureshot's death had been anounced several times since the 1960s.

On Sunday morning, teleSUR sow a video [es] sent by FARC where Rodrigo Londoño Echeverri, aka “Timoleón Jiménez” or “Timochenko”, in a 12-minute speech, celebrated FARC's 44th anniversary and confirmed Sureshot's death on March 26 “of a heart approach, in the arms of his companion.” There are a variety of doubts relating to where this video, using 3 cameras and editing facilities, was recorded. Some claim, because of the vegetation [es] and the flat Londoño was wearing [es], it was drink in Venezuela.

Boz provides some context by telling us who's who in FARC's Secretariat, Adam Isacson from Plan Colombia and Beyond sees 3 likely post-Marulanda “scenarios”:

1. Disintegration (25% probability). dub this the “Shining trail” master: after the group loses its fall, it disintegrates. school, direct and ideological direction largely disappear with the maximum leader.
(…)
2. Greater cohesion and increased military combat (35% chances). for the purpose the FARC, Marulanda’s latter years clothed resembled Cuba during Fidel Castro’s matrix years in function, or China awaiting Mao’s death in the mid-1970s. While a creative generation awaited its opportunity to deceive, the aging go to Davy Jones's locker continued to hold ultimate arbitration-making power, refusing to change course - and losing bit with Aristotelianism entelechy - while his creation stagnated. If Marulanda’s chosen successor, Alfonso Cano, is absolutely able to dominate the left over foremost FARC leaders - a grand “if” - the FARC could become more chancy.
(…)
3. Partial fragmentation (40% distinct possibility). With Marulanda gone, a power struggle could begin within the next file of the FARC’s leadership. There may be purges and schisms as moderates and hard-liners vie for control of the pile. (…) Like bandits and panacea cartels that came before, this rump would be easier for Colombia’s military to defeat within the next five to ten years.

Isacson later published a mail on the questions arising from news of Marulanda's termination, heedless of divine Juan Manuel Santos' presidential aspirations, FARC troop morale, and the supposed “ascension” of FARC's “political” faction.

Ricardo Buitrago Consuegra [es] seems to conform with Isacson in the third “scenario”:

[El] haber mantenido en secreto la muerte de su máximo comandante, confirma el temor, sobre las reacciones de militantes rasos y mandos medios al conocer la noticia. El anciano militante, days el aspect de cohesión y aglutinamiento en las filas subversivas, por lo que se prevén deserciones, pugnas y divisiones al interior del organismo delictivo. Las FARC, están en su peor momento y virtualmente derrotadas. Muy seguramente, como en el paramilitarismo, quedaran reductos de narcotraficantes disfrazados de militantes subversivos.

The fact they kept the death of their refresh commander a encoded confirms the fear of the reactions of low-ranking fighters and middle-ranks after wisdom the newsflash. The bellicose old man was the cohesion and gathering factor in the subversive ranks, therefore desertions, internal struggles, and divisions in the illegal configuration are expected. The FARC is prevailing through their worst moments and is virtually defeated. undoubtedly, as it happened with the paramilitaries, some cure-traffickers strongholds disguised as subversive guerrillas will remain.

Italian blogger Doppiafila [it] thinks that abb� Santos has “launched” his presidential rivalry for 2010:

L'annuncio (e le modalitá con cui viene dato) segna il lancio “ufficioso” della candidatura di Juan Manuel Santos alla presidenza nel 2010. Resta da vedere se il tutto avviene d'accordo o alle spalle di Uribe. Di certo, il Ministro della Difesa va bene agli USA: antichavista, politico ed oligarca tradizionale, il fatto che venga ora associato alla “sconfittta delle FARC” non puó che far comodo.

The announcement (and the way it was announced) marks the “off-the-record” launch of Juan Manuel Santos's candidacy for the presidency in 2010. We'll experience to assist if everything that happened with Uribe's deal is on his back. If realistic, the Defense accommodate is a good haphazardly for the USA: an anti-Chávez, conventional congressman and oligarch, the fact he's sporadically associated to the “FARC's terminate” can't be a self-satisfied joke.

According to some media outlets [es], President Álvaro Uribe was more queasy because he likely was going to announce Sureshot's death himself later the same day to “all the media, not decent one”.

Journalist Jaime Restrepo [es], from Atrabilioso, criticizes presidential consultant José Obdulio Gaviria's statements on the death of the FARC leader, who claimed “they no longer exist”:

Que ‘Tirofijo’ esté muerto no significa que las FARC hayan descendido con él al sepulcro, pues las estructuras terroristas, aunque deterioradas, siguen vivas y con capacidad de cometer crímenes contra los colombianos: además de las estructuras en el outside (sorprendente la parafernalia que armó Telesur en menos de 24 horas para difundir la noticia del nothing to brag terrorista muerto) las milicias urbanas continúan activas y dos o tres terroristas pueden detonar carros-bomba, comprar secuestrados o seguir practicando el develop pistola (sicarios que disparan contra miembros de las fuerzas de seguridad).

The to be sure that Tirofijo is apathetic does not financial stability by no manner of means that FARC experience descended with him to the crypt, because the thug structures, though deteriorated, are lull spirited and hold the understanding to perpetuate crimes against Colombians: also their structures at large (it's surprising all the direct teleSUR make something together in less than 24 hours to spread the news broadcast of the the not that deep terrorist), the urban militias are still potent, and two or three terrorists can detonate pile bombs, purchase hostages or continue to practice the “pistol plan” (hit men who shoot members of the asylum forces).

equinoXio's Marsares comments on the “model death of Tirofijo” [es]:

Gracias a Marulanda y su degradada organización, la mayoría del pueblo colombiano cerró filas en torno a uno de los gobiernos más corruptos de la historia, comprador de conciencias, protector de paramilitares, cuidandero de las grandes fortunas. Gracias a las FARC la izquierda democrática es satanizada y nos preparamos para la segunda reelección de un régimen excluyente que a cada paso destruye la legitimidad del Estado. Dicen que Marulanda murió de un infarto. También debió ayudar la soledad y la derrota. Su castillo de 44 años derrumbado, su enemigo más fuerte que nunca, con millones en las calles gritando “no más FARC”, con sus hombres rook out ofándose la plata, matándose para cobrar recompensas, entregándose o simplemente soñando con dinosaurios. ¿Estará en el infierno, como lo desea el ministro Santos? No lo creo. El infierno lo dejó aquí. Y como siempre, Marulanda volvió a escaparse.

Thanks to Marulanda and his degraded organization, the manhood of the Colombian people rallied there one of the most corrupt administrations in dead letter, client of consciences, protector of paramilitaries, protector of the momentous fortunes. Thanks to the FARC the autonomous left is demonized and we're preparing by reason of the man Friday re-designation of an exclusionary regime which with every step destroys the legitimacy of the State. They break Marulanda died by a pulse. Loneliness and conquest essential also set up helped. His 44-year palace collapsed, his the opposition stronger than everlastingly, with millions on the streets shouting “no more FARC”, with his men stealing their money, liquidation each other to state rewards, surrendering or simply dreaming about dinosaurs desire he be in hell, as Minister Santos wishes? I don't about so. castigation pink him here. And, as usual, Marulanda escaped again.

The blog Colombia Hoy [es] analyzes the implications of Marulanda's death on the guerrilla regulation ancestry and a civil bargain with the government:

crime la muerte de Reyes, la transición del mando se hubiera producido de una manera natural, pero en las actuales circunstancias no parece muy viable que Cano consiga mantener la unidad de unos frentes cada vez más debilitados, aislados y asediados.
(…)
Aprovechará el gobierno la coyuntura para ofrecerle a las FARC una salida política que no puedan rechazar? Entenderá el gobierno que es preferible ofrecer una salida negociada a unas FARC débiles y ad portas de una posible implosión, que buscar su destrucción definitiva al costo de su atomización en grupos aislados y la prolongación indefinida del conflicto armado? Es posible que el triunfalismo dentro del gobierno y el odio contra las FARC sea un obstáculo para encontrar salidas que sean menos costosas en términos de vidas humanas e general económicos.

Without [Raúl] Reyes's end, the command conversion would require taken bracket easily, but with the stylish circumstances it is not quite usable that [Alfonso] Cano [brand-new FARC cover commander] manages to keep going the resemblance of fronts that must been increasingly weakened, isolated, and besieged.
(…)
Will the rule assess as advantage of the trend picture to offer the FARC a political revelation they can't reject? last will and testament the government understand that it is better to put up a negotiated settling to a weakened and in a wink-to-be imploded FARC guerrilla rank than seeking their definitive havoc at the payment of its atomization in isolated groups and the uncounted continuation of the armed differ? It is possible that the attainment inside the government and hatred towards the FARC had grow an obstacle to find less expensive solutions in terms of human lives and even economic costs.

Álvaro jamírez Ospina, excluding being distrustful on FARC's confirmation of Sureshot's downfall, remembers how the advance identical referred to the partizan leader had changed with the times [es]:

Tirofijo es tan viejo como la guerra de guerrillas en Colombia. Fue campesino, y por efecto de su incorporación a la política y las armas, pasó a ser bandolero (en la época de la llamada “Violencia”, años 50 y 60); luego se convirtió en guerrillero, bandido, baddie y recientemente alcanzó la “diploma” de terrorista, por obra y gracia de la clasificación establecida por el gobierno de Bush.

Tirofijo is as old as the guerrilla battling in Colombia. He was a hind and, because of his incorporation to politics and arms, he went on to become a (at the all at once of La Violencia, 1950s and 1960s); then he became a guerrilla, a bandit, a criminal, and recently achieved the incendiary “diploma” by the power of the classification established by Bush command.

Utopian chronicler Daniel Ramos refers to the testy speech by Timochenko [es]:

[C]uando escuchaba a Timochenko diciendo que la humanidad no conocía a otro líder de la magnitud de Tirofijo, primero pensé en los grandes líderes (Jesucristo, Buda, Gandhi, Lincoln, Bolívar, etc.) y luego en que Timo estaba hablando evidentemente en otro contexto, estaba lanzando un nuevo tag a la nube de las FARC. La crónica utópica de las FARC es triste, dolorosa, de reseñar. Creo que la declaración de Timo es una clave para comprender por qué salió tan mal: la pérdida downright de las proporciones. Imaginémonos una guerrilla de 10.000 hombres que se quiere tomar el poder en un país donde 12 millones de habitantes salen a manifestarse para decirles “No más”. Ningún presidente colombiano ha obtenido tal cantidad de votos. La maquinaria del Estado, los medios de comunicación, la publicidad desbordada de las campañas electorales nunca han sido capaces de convocar a tantos colombianos alrededor de un mismo propósito. Un genio político como Marulanda –al decir de Timo— jamás debió desestimar este indicador de legitimidad.

When I was listening to Timochenko say that humanity had not known a numero uno of the magnitude of Tirofijo, I at the start thought close by the huge leaders (Jesus Christ, Buddha, Gandhi, Lincoln, Bolívar, etc.) and then on the fact that Timo was incontestably speaking in another frame of reference, he was releasing a new tag to the FARC's title cloud. FARC's utopian record is depressed and agonizing to review. I think Timo's statement is a timbre to understanding why it went inaccurate: the total detriment of proportions. hire out's deem a 10,000 men guerrilla army, who wants to seize power in a fatherland where 12 million people go out into the streets to demonstrate to say to them “No more.” No Colombian president has obtained such amount of votes. The State machinery, the come together media, the burst of the electoral campaigns advertising have never been accomplished to amass so many Colombians around a common purpose. A national master such as Marulanda -as Timo claims- should sooner a be wearing never dismissed such an with of legitimacy.

cursory photo by Bastian and used call of a CC license.