The World is Talking. Global Politics

Japan Observer comments on Chinese President Hu Jintao's 5-day visit to Japan.

U.S. News and World Report: "Experts disagree on whether or not Clinton will actually stick in the fight until the Democratic National Convention in August. But the date looms large for another reason -- at least, if she hopes to recoup any of the millions she has sunk into the campaign. Thanks to a little-known provision in 2002's McCain-Feingold campaign-finance reform bill, a campaign must repay the loan to a candidate before Election Day. In this case, that's the nominating convention. After the election has passed, a bankrupt campaign is limited to gathering just $250,000 from contributors, which means that modest sum is all it can give back to a candidate. In short, Clinton stands to lose $11,150,000."

Mohmmad Ali Abtahi, former vice president, writes [Fa]that he does not understand why Mayor's Office in Tehran should pay 3 million dollars for reconstruction in Lebanon. He says according to official statistics there are many poor living in Tehran.

Sen. Barack Obama's previously announced national voter registration drive is actually much more than that and something that "should scare the beejeesus out of the McCain campaign and the RNC," according to Marc Ambinder.

"The Vote For Change program will lay the foundation for Obama's general election get-out-the-vote efforts. Obama aides won't say much more, but I gather that the campaign is constructing an incredibly elaborate online interface to allow its more than a million donors and volunteers to directly persuade their neighbors through a variety of media. Names gathered from the voter registration effort will be merged with names gathered through Obama's primary efforts and the names off of the Democratic Party's integrated voter file as well as lists purchased from outside vendors."

Via Joe Posnanski, we wend our way to an interview at The Big Lead with our VF colleague Buzz Bissinger,* in which he explains his intemperate outburst on Bob Costas' HBO show against hunchbacked bloggers who need their mouths and souls washed out with nun's soap. He expresses contrition for the tone and substance of some of his randomly sprayed invective, yet, curiously, refuses to apologize for decking me in the Conde Nast elevator in a flashpoint dispute over the musical legacy of W. C. Handy (see below). Perhaps BB feels he has nothing to apologize for, or the incident skipped his mind, or simply never took place.

It has become harder and harder in the latter days of the Bush administration for me to tell my hallucinations apart.

For example, the other night, perhaps it was last night, I was flipping between the Yankees-Indians game and Oprah on channel 55, a sign of the ditch into which my entertainment habits have fallen, when I could have sworn the YES network cut to Henry Kissinger slumped in the VIP box in a Yankees bullpen jacket.

The word "surreal" is so oft over- and misused these days (Teresa Rebeck has fun with a blonde party girl's oh-wow usage of "surreal" in her play The Scene), but this sight qualified: Kissinger, slumped into himself, as if burdened and buried under his own ponderous self-importance, his head--as craggy and ancient-eternal as a Koren drawing of a Galapagos lizard--protruding from a shiny, ripply black Yankees jacket that looked fresh off the souvenir rack. It seemed wrong that Kissinger should enjoy a cushy spot to watch the Yankees lose, that he should still be here after Norman Mailer and Kurt Vonnegut have gone. Perhaps he's hanging on long enough for the United States to embark on another foul, misguided war so that he can squeeze out one or two more appearances on Charlie Rose and grace us with his "unique perspective" in a guttural voice thick with stones and ash.

As for Oprah, a show I seldom see, the guest panel--Alexandra Wentworth ("Schmoopy" to Seinfeld fans), Gayle King, and Kelly Ripa's husband, actor-hearthrob Mark Consuelos--was acting all twinkly facetious about Barbara Walters' stale revelation in her new book Audition and on Oprah's show about her affair with then-married then-Massachusetts Senator Ed Brooke. The possible unseemliness of a journalist carrying on an adulterous affair with a politician took backseat to over "who knew Barbara was into the brothers?" (Consuelos) to her having a sweet tooth for chocolate (King) to Hey, every woman's into the brothers (Wentworth, married to cream-filled vanilla cupcake George Stephanopolous). They were like a panel of political pundits discussing Obama's bowling, trying to out-cute each other in vapid celebrity chitchat. Then Oprah cut to a black hair salon to get the reaction of real downhome women and, guess what, they sounded as coy and contrived and synthetic in their responses as the metallic, supergroomed Gayle King and the other panelists. In the age of Reality TV, everybody knows how to act like a "character" now, to give the camera what it wants. Indeed, the only non-fake person in the whole charade was Oprah herself, who's still capable of instant, unforced, genuine reactions (as with her priceless "Oh...kay" when Walters primly asserted that she never considered herself a "mistress" and her mimicry of Mariah Carey's preening bullshit); I guess that's why it's Oprah's world, and the rest of us are just ants bearing twigs we know not where.

*who addresses the tragedy of filly Eight Belles at VF Daily

May 7 should have been a day for general strike and demonstration to contest the government’s economic policies, price rise and low wages. The workers syndicate had to cancel the demonstration, although keeping the strike on, because clashes broke out in many places around Lebanon between different factions belonging to the pro–government and opposition camps. Bloggers were quick to comment on the events. Here are some of their reflections from yesterday although the events are escalating very fast into gunfights in the streets of Beirut. Check back for more summaries on bloggers posts and reports on the unfolding crisis:

Tantalus’ comment reflects what most Lebanese fear - “a civil war”:

upon hearing knocking on his door, Lebanese citizen gets up to see who's there:
Oh Civil War, where have you been for 18 years? I've missed you. Welcome back.

Rami expresses his disgust:

Also F*** those who try to pretend they’re angels, while we know very well that it takes AT LEAST 2 to start a fight, so it’s quite obvious that 8 March and 14 March are both a*******.
I’m at work now and I still don’t know if it will be safe to go back home or not… Oh that’s one more F*** YOU to the “wado3″ (situation).

The Inner Circle explains why he is now ashamed of being Lebanese:

The worst part of all this, is that Lebanese think they’re propped up to being better than their surroundings. For one, Lebanon is not even on the map for most of the world; For me, today, Lebanon is mostly a bunch of low class, rubbish people that rule out any image the few intellectuals behind the scenes strive to propagate. Everybody forgot the purpose of today’s demonstration, or whatever you want to call it, ten minutes into the show.

Angry Arab analyzes what Lebanon is going through and why from a social, regional and historical perspective:

Several of the emails I received from Beirut today informed me that “civil war” has erupted or started in Lebanon. Which makes you wonder: when does social science decide when a civil war officially starts? It does not start with a parade or a press conference, and I can assure you, from experience, that often people don't know that they just entered a civil war. […]
What Lebanon is going through right now is undoubtedly part of the legacy of Rafiq Hariri. His designs for Lebanon (early on with Syrian-Saudi support, and later with the support of a faction in the Syrian regime before it was neutralized after the rise of Bashshar Al-Asad) clearly were in tune with the US-Israeli plans in the region. […]
Sanyruah was too inviting for the Americans: they thought that he would do in Lebanon what Maliki failed to do in Iraq: to impose national will against militias and resistance groups anywhere in the region. No one in the new era is permitted to defy US/Israeli will. […]
What happened in Lebanon today was certainly part of a larger regional conspiracy: you can't isolate the developments of Lebanon from the developments in Iraq and Palestine. […]
So will there be civil war? Thus far, one can say this. The party that wants civil war can't achieve it, and the party that is capable of instigating and sustaining a civil war does not want it–not yet anyway.

Jnoubiyeh mentions the government's decisions as violations that will lead to undesired repercussions:

The decision to remove B.G. Shqeir will also prompt Muslim Shiite powers in the opposition to act so that immunity of Muslim Shiite official posts remains intact.
Hours earlier, the vice president of the Higher Islamic Shiite Council Sheikh Abdul Amir Kabalan said he conveyed a message to Saniora that removing Shqeir would be viewed as an unprecedented violation that will lead to undesired repercussions.
For his part, the head of the Change and Reform bloc MP Michel Aoun defended Hezbollah's communications network, stressing “there are other private communications networks than Hezbollah's.” “Finding a camera on airport road is not a security penetration,” Aoun said. “The road to Bekfaya is full of cameras and they monitor us all the time,” he added.

Friday Lunch Club posts a letter he got from Nir Rosen in which Nir reports about his experience during the day while running around from one flashpoint to another:

“….I spent the entire day running around all the flashpoints in Beirut, wherever there were mobs, shootings, explosions, I got harassed by various militias from both sides and it works perfectly for my big story about the Sunnis of Lebanon and their militias, but I was really shocked at the behavior of Amal. I’ve spent a lot of time with Mustaqbal militiamen, who of course are thuggish and racist and their militias are getting better organized, and that’s all frightening, but they seem very weak and almost cowardly when compared with the Amal thugs I saw today, who were very provocative.

The Human Province asks how an issue like raising the minimum wage should become an excuse for street fight:

My friend S, on the other hand, lives in Corniche el-Mazra'a, where there has been fighting most of the day. She just told me that they haven't seen any army troops in over an hour, just militiamen from Amal and Mostaqbal (Future Movement) carrying guns and RPG launchers. They don't have any electricity and have had to leave the living room, because the windows are too big. There have been other clashes in the usual places: Cola, Museitbeh, Tariq el-Jadida, Tayounneh and Ras el-Naba'a, amongst others.
It's really depressing to me how even an issue like raising the minimum wage, which should have appeal across sectarian lines, inevitably turns into an excuse for thugs from vying political parties to fight in the street.

Mirvat sees the situation as a curse Lebanese inherited from their Phoenician forefathers:

It is the curse of our fathers that we should never be together, that we should always be divided. That we should destroy everything we achieve. That we should work against each other. That we should always leave the next generation in dire despair and faced with the challenge of re-building a name for themselves and their country, until we ruin it all, all over again.
Feiruz is stuck at the airport!
Will we ever be taken seriously again, be respected again? When we do not trust ourselves, we exhaust ourselves, we self-destroy and we will .. inevitably .. implode from within!

Liliane sees Lebanon being torn apart between two factions:

Ladies and Gentlemen, we the Lebanese are being dissected and torn apart by two major evil forces, the Haririst and the Hezbollah!
The coming days will unveil the upcoming war, not necessarily a typical civil war which we are used to, but when RPGs, Snipers and bombs are used in a supposedly “peaceful” demonstration, then it is an ugly battle taking place to say the least.
Until now, some of the Future movement members have closed the road in Saadneyil and also in Masnaa, which is the crossing border between Lebanon and Syria in response to the closing of the road to the airport by Hezbollah. The first, claimed that once the airport road is open, they will open the roads on their ends.

Marxist From Lebanon points out to the fact that all political parties are organized for war:

The events of today show much each and every political party is organized for war. The realist perspective would be the Security dilemma: “hey they got arms, so I will have arms as well even though I am a lover of peace!” A Small Question though, if you take the collective number of the people on the streets, it tells you that the majority of the proletariat in Lebanon do not [want] war, and only those pathetic rug rats wants to go to war.

Photos and updates are being posted at Blacksmiths of Lebanon, at Bilad ash-Sham and at Farfahinne.

The Politico has an excellent chart to keep track of the Democratic superdelegates and who they have endorsed and who is still uncommitted.

Rep. Vito Fossella (R-NY) acknowledged "that he fathered a child from an extramarital affair, answering questions that arose from his arrest on drunken driving charges last week," the AP reports.

"The disclosure clouds Fossella's political future. He faced a surprisingly tough re-election challenge in 2006, and Democrats were hoping to unseat him this year."

CQ Politics says Fossella "was under growing pressure" to resign.

First, an update on the situation in Myanmar after Cyclone Nargis hit the country a few days ago. The death toll continues to rise. The official report on the number of casualties is way below international estimates. The government is still placing the number of dead people around 23,000 while international aid groups believe the figure could now reach 100,000.

Golden Colour Revolution hints the death toll could be worse:

“According to an undisclosed interview with one government official, death toll is reaching 600,000 so far and 100,000 still missing. According to his figure, 180,000 were killed in Lutbutta township alone. 90,000 in Phyar Pone Township; 80,000 in Bogalay Township; 50,000 each in KywanGanKone, DayDaYae and MawKyane Township.Authorities. Army and its thugs are throwing away dead bodies to the nearby river. Even in Ye Way Cemetery in Yangon City, dead bodies are cremated in batch without proper identification. Emphasizing to Phyar Pone Township, authority declared an Emergency Act.”

Bangkok Dazed received an e-mail from an expat friend living in Yangon, Myanmar. Below is a short description of how people in the residential city are coping with the situation:

“In our house we were trapped when tress around the house fell over after 11 hours of strong winds at 200-240 knots. The mess is terrible everywhere, with all electricity down and no water for days. Our home/office phone lines are down including all power lines. I am here today at the internet café. This area on Mahabandoola Street is open again in downtown Yangon, as they had underground wiring and cables. All the rest of us who live in residential areas and in the city are left with no power. We are looking at 3 to 6 months, or maybe 1 year to get power again! To add more stress, all food and water has gone up 3 times the price. As each day goes by, the price of generators go up; we paid $2,000 for a generator that is usually priced at $900 to $1,200. So it’s really bad. All of us are unhurt, but we are still coping with this situation.”

Now, let’s discuss the status of the relief work in Myanmar. The ruling Junta is still restricting the movement of international relief groups. Soe Moe enumerates the services and goods needed by Myanmar today:

“It’s been 6 days since the cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar and the situation is getting worse day by day due to the decomposed animals and human lying around the effected areas. Recent days, we had witnessed the generosity of the world as the humanitarian aid in millions of dollars. But it is very sad to find out that Burmese government is hesitating to grant visa to UN aid workers and NGOs in the name of politics. It is not the time for politics during the time of humanitarian crisis. And it is very sad to hear on news that the western nations are willing to provide the aid needing by the cyclone Nargis victims while Burmese government is refusing to accept them.

“Today first UN aid plane has landed in Yangon International Airport after 2 days delay due to the visa issues. And more planes are waiting permission from Burmese government to land in Yangon. Italy, Thai, India and Indonesia aid planes had been allowed to land in Yangon. We have seen the death toll increasing dramatically over the days.

“What we desperately need is experience aid works and rescue units to help the survivors, to dispose the dead bodies properly and to control the deadly diseases. We need helicopters to go to the most remote areas where the aid is greatly needed. In Burmese air force, we have limited numbers of helicopters and they won’t be able to help those from remote areas. US military is offering aid mission. The US airbase in Thailand is ready to send its helicopters and ships to Burma for search and rescue mission. And again, Burmese generals are not going to accept the offer because they are Americans. This is not the time for like or dislike. This is the time to save as much people as we can.”

The blogger is also horrified to see the dumping of corpses in the rivers:

“I was so surprised to see that dead people being dump into the rivers. I’m wondering what they are thinking. It won’t solve the problem by throwing the dead bodies in to the river. In fact, it will endanger the people who are living along the river bank with deadly diseases.

“In a matter of days, the death toll will increase again. This time it is not going to be devastating force of the cyclone Nargis, but it is going to be the poor health care and reluctance to accept the aid workers around the world by the generals of Burma. And this time the government will also be responsible for the dead of tens of thousands of Burmese in Burma. Their ignorance to the early warning of the cyclone Nargis and reluctance to accept the aid from around the world will be the main cause of people dying in our country. And we will never forget how people are being killed during 1988, September 2007 and May 2008.”

Bangkok Dazed insists giving aid should not be politicized:

“If the USA, or any country, wants to offer humanitarian aid, I think that is wonderful. But the aid shouldn’t come with strings attached, or accompanied by lectures. Just help the people that need it, and keep your political and religious agenda to yourself. But that seems to be an impossible task for the “holier than thou” contingent. You would think those idiots in the Bush administration would “get it” by now. But no, they continue their same style of inflammatory, derisive diplomacy; criticizing and ridiculing other countries, rather than making a sincere attempt to engage in constructive dialogue. That means sitting down and talking to the other country, not lecturing them and calling then bad names.”

Beyond SG advises the Junta to learn from the Chinese government:

“Aid is pouring in from all over the world. The bottleneck is the damaged infrastructure which was not very good to begin with. Initially suspicious of foreign assistance, the Myanmar Government is cautiously opening its door to outside help. This is a major test for the military government. If it rises to the challenge, its standing in the eyes of the citizenry will go up. The manner in which the Chinese leadership responded to the unusually cold weather during the Chinese New Year period this year earned it widespread praise.”

Asia's Perfect 10 is looking for the intervention of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN):

“Close to 5 days after Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar, ASEAN has yet to mobilize anything to aid Myanmar. Thailand and Indonesia have pledged something. Good for them but ASEAN is reacting really slow to aid one of its member states.”

The Junta really suffers from low reputation. Even international relief campaigns are assuring the potential donors that the relief goods will not be directed to Myanmar’s government. Melody’s quotes a sample of the relief campaign information drive:

“You can provide immediate, direct relief to Burmese cyclone victims. The relief will go entirely to the victims. These will not be sidetracked by government agencies, politics or administrative siphoning.”

Straight Talk provides details on the donation drive in Malaysia. Busy Days monitors donation collection in Singapore. The blogger also writes that

“A well-known regional Myanmar Blogger, Nyi Lynn Seck, from Yangon (Rangoon), Myanmar, has volunteered to go to the affected regions of Irrawady Delta to distribute food, medicine and other relief supplies.”

Ko htike's prosaic collection describes the military generals as shameless after they were caught replacing the labels of aid boxes from Thailand. The Burmese Ruby Diary is disappointed that some commentators are writing that the cyclone was a punishment for Myanmar. Little Myanmar compiles an international aid contribution list.

Related articles: The Perfect Storm, Unprecedented cyclone disaster

President Bush's job approval rating has fallen to 28%, according to the new Gallup Poll.

Stunning: "Just 6 in 10 Republicans approve of the job he is doing, the lowest of his administration."